- The Red Eclipse
- Dune Bantha
- Bacca's Blade
- Nightmare Lands
- Goluud Corridor
- Hidden Beks
- Dxun Battle Circle
- Eye of Ashlanae
- Flames of the Crucible
- Kellian Jarro
- Ludo Kressh
- Luka Sene
- Rogue Moon
- Sluis Shipyards
- The Arkanian Legacy
- Hydian Way
- Peragus Mining Facility
Once you get beyond #7 or so, it all gets a bit debatable - because these servers have spent so long listed as "LIGHT" they don't really register "STANDARD" often enough to accurately gauge populations. So it could be that Rogue Moon should really be #8 rather than #15. But this was my list, so I'm going to leave the order alone and assume it's close enough, knowing the problems.
My guess is for a 4:1 transfer ratio. With the 15 lowest population servers being merged into the 5 highest population servers. Clearly this is wishful thinking on my part, since last time I checked Frostclaw was #5.
So far, by the end of the 12th there hasn't been anything to contradict this predication. With Eye of Ashlanae being transferred to The Red Eclipse. But a sample of one is hardly the basis for confirmation.
My expectation is that initially transfers will be opened up to The Red Eclipse, Dune Bantha and Decca's Blade only. Then once The Red Bantha is nearing capacity, they open up transfers to Nightmare Lands. Then once Dune Bantha is nearing capacity, the open up transfers to Frostclaw. By that point there should still be 7 or 8 origin server that haven't been announced and they'll be prioritised to the remaining 3 destination servers depending on take up. Ending up with 5 servers with 4 times the number of active players they had before the 12th, plus any players who've decided to return. So probably 300-350 on fleet on the popular raid nights (Sun thru Thurs).
I'm writing all this now, so I can compare what I thought will happen with what actually happens. They could just as easily announce a 1:1 transfer to all 5 of my guesses for destinations. Then expand to 2:1. Then 3:1. Finally distributing the remaining origin servers to maximise populations on all the servers without actually of them reaching capacity. So that maybe Frostclaw gets 5:1 whereas Red Eclipse gets 3:1 - but all servers end up with similar populations.
Then they could blow my hopes for Frostclaw being a destination server completely out of the water by aiming for a 5:1 merger rate and having 375-450 people on fleet at peak times. In which case, we'll end up with 4 PvE EU English servers and none of them are likely to be Frostclaw.
So why do I think Frostclaw is going to be a destination server?
Mainly because it's had a higher population than the other low population servers and for longer. Plus it was also the first English EU server to go live. Plus I don't want to transfer to another server and lose my main's character name. (I already know "Darling" is already in use on all 4 higher population servers... I checked).
As pseduo evidence, I present the following graphs from www.torstatus.net show what imo are the top 9 servers. In both cases, I've included Frostclaw for comparison.
(click image to enlarge)
(click image to enlarge)
How much those top 4 really are that high population remains to be seen. The numbers could be boosted by people re-rolling from other servers.
Frostclaw and Goluud Corridor are relatively close on the population stakes. But Goluud Corridor appears to have been fractionally lower throughout and dipped below the STANDARD threshold about a week before Frostclaw did.
And looking at these graphs, it looks like the larger population had pretty much stopped playing around Tuesday May 22rd.